Sudtirol 1–3 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Frosinone

E. Pecorino 60'

F. Ghedjemis 85'

G. Calo 68'

A. Raimondo 7'

3/22/2026

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sudtirol35%

×Draw29%

Frosinone37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.15

Sudtirol

1.11

Frosinone

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 116 away

1.14

creates per match

1.20

1.10

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.14

Frosinone

1.20

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.10

Frosinone

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

63%

Sudtirol or Frosinone

71%

Draw or Frosinone

65%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

14%

Frosinone wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

67%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

30%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

10%

Frosinone 1+ goals

68%

Frosinone 2+ goals

32%

Frosinone 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

49%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Frosinone defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Frosinone attack 1.20 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sudtirol scores more

35%

level

29%

Frosinone scores more

37%

Frosinone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Palmisani

Frosinone · G

8.0

Match Events

7'

30'

38'

40'

45+1'

46'

M. R. Frigerio← H. El Kaouakibi

46'

A. Fiori← G. Kvernadze

46'

M. Cichella← F. Gelli

50'

Ilario Monterisi

58'

Daniele CasiraghiPenalty confirmed

60'

E. Pecorino

62'

Giacomo Calò

68'

G. Calo

69'

F. Ghedjemis← S. Fini

75'

F. Bordon← A. Masiello

75'

D. Crnigoj← F. Tait

79'

S. Verdi← S. Tronchin

80'

M. Zilli← A. Raimondo

85'

F. Ghedjemis↳ M. Cichella

87'

Farès GhedjemisGoal confirmed

88'

R. Tonin← S. Merkaj

89'

Ilias Koutsoupias

90+7'

Filipe Bordon

90+2'

J. Gelli← G. Calo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolFrosinone

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots7

1.87Expected Goals (xG)1.05

3Corners4

18Fouls22

Shots

16Total Shots7

6On Target5

7Off Target0

3Blocked2

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

335Total Passes253

220Accurate Passes142

66%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

0.85Goals Prevented0.85

Discipline

18Fouls22

2Yellow Cards6

1Offsides1