Frosinone 2–2 Sudtirol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Sudtirol

F. Ghedjemis 30'

G. Calo 10' (pen)

S. Merkaj 78' (pen)

J. Martini 72'

9/19/2025

Serie B · Round 4Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Frosinone46%

×Draw27%

Sudtirol27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchSudtirol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.02

Frosinone

1.42

Sudtirol

1.02

Frosinone creates 39% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 78 away

1.54

creates per match

1.08

0.95

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Frosinone

1.54

Sudtirol

1.08

allows per match

Frosinone

0.95

Sudtirol

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Sudtirol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

73%

Frosinone or Sudtirol

73%

Draw or Sudtirol

54%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

22%

Sudtirol wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

76%

Frosinone 2+ goals

41%

Frosinone 3+ goals

17%

Sudtirol 1+ goals

64%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

27%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

63%

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.95 · 117 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.54 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Frosinone defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frosinone scores more

46%

level

27%

Sudtirol scores more

27%

Frosinone at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

F. Ghedjemis

Frosinone · F

8.0

Match Events

10'

G. CaloPenalty

30'

F. Ghedjemis↳ I. Koutsoupias

46'

R. Odogwu← E. Pecorino

46'

H. El Kaouakibi← F. Bordon

64'

J. Martini← F. Tait

68'

K. Zedadka← A. Mallamo

69'

G. Cittadini← I. Monterisi

69'

E. Masciangelo← G. Kvernadze

72'

J. Martini↳ S. Merkaj

74'

Gabriele Calvani

78'

Giacomo Calò

78'

Simone Davì

78'

S. MerkajPenalty

79'

Silvio Merkaj

83'

R. Marchizza← G. Bracaglia

84'

J. Oyono← A. Oyono

85'

F. Davi← S. Tronchin

89'

M. Zilli← E. Vergani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneSudtirol

Overview

62%Possession38%

20Total Shots14

5Corners4

18Fouls18

Shots

20Total Shots14

5On Target5

9Off Target2

6Blocked7

16Inside Box11

4Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

398Total Passes234

329Accurate Passes150

83%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2