Sudtirol 1–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Frosinone

F. De Col 24'

I. Monterisi 90+5'

12/4/2022

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sudtirol38%

×Draw25%

Frosinone37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.41

Sudtirol

1.44

Frosinone

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.21

creates per match

1.69

1.12

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.21

Frosinone

1.69

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.12

Frosinone

1.68

-0.51scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Sudtirol-0.51scores less

Frosinone+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

63%

Sudtirol or Frosinone

75%

Draw or Frosinone

62%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

18%

Frosinone wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

76%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

42%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

18%

Frosinone 1+ goals

76%

Frosinone 2+ goals

41%

Frosinone 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

51%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 10 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.68 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.21 + Frosinone defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Frosinone attack 1.69 + Sudtirol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sudtirol scores more

38%

level

25%

Frosinone scores more

37%

Sudtirol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. Zaro

Sudtirol · D

7.9

Match Events

24'

F. De Col↳ M. Rover

53'

Filippo De Col

53'

S. Mulattieri← L. Garritano

53'

G. Caso← M. Bočić

62'

Daniel Boloca

62'

T. D'Orazio← F. De Col

62'

N. Siega← S. Mazzocchi

76'

G. Frabotta← M. Cotali

76'

G. Borrelli← L. Moro

77'

D. Casiraghi← M. Rover

80'

82'

84'

90+4'

90'

M. Marconi← R. Odogwu

90'

M. Pompetti← F. Tait

90+5'

I. Monterisi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolFrosinone

Overview

27%Possession73%

6Total Shots20

1Corners9

12Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots20

2On Target4

4Off Target11

0Blocked5

5Inside Box10

1Outside Box10

Passing

27%Possession73%

239Total Passes634

150Accurate Passes552

63%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0