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Sudtirol vs Cittadella — Serie B 2018

Sudtirol
Sudtirol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cittadella
Cittadella
5/13/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 37Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sudtirol39%
×Draw29%
Cittadella31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudtirol
1.17
Cittadella
1.01

Sudtirol creates 16% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 134 away

creates per match

Sudtirol
1.14
Cittadella
0.92

allows per match

Sudtirol
1.10
Cittadella
1.19

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par
Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Cittadella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw
69%
Sudtirol or Cittadella
71%
Draw or Cittadella
61%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+
17%
Cittadella wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals
69%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
33%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
11%
Cittadella 1+ goals
64%
Cittadella 2+ goals
27%
Cittadella 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)
56%
Cittadella (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sudtirol scores more
39%
level
29%
Cittadella scores more
31%

Sudtirol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sudtirol vs Cittadella

Sudtirol and Cittadella drew 1-1 in Serie B on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bozen.