Cittadella 2–1 Sudtirol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cittadella

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sudtirol

F. Pittarello 66'

L. Pandolfi 24'

D. Casiraghi 56'

11/25/2023

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Cittadella41%

×Draw28%

Sudtirol32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CittadellaExpected goals in this matchSudtirol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.09

Cittadella

1.28

Sudtirol

1.09

Cittadella creates 17% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 78 away

1.27

creates per match

1.08

1.10

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Cittadella

1.27

Sudtirol

1.08

allows per match

Cittadella

1.10

Sudtirol

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Sudtirol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw

68%

Cittadella or Sudtirol

72%

Draw or Sudtirol

59%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+

18%

Sudtirol wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals

72%

Cittadella 2+ goals

37%

Cittadella 3+ goals

14%

Sudtirol 1+ goals

66%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

30%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)

56%

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cittadella scores more

41%

level

28%

Sudtirol scores more

32%

Cittadella at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

D. Casiraghi

Sudtirol · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

L. Pandolfi↳ C. Cassano

31'

Daouda Peeters

33'

Lorenzo Carissoni

36'

Daniele Casiraghi

46'

R. Ciervo← D. Peeters

46'

A. Cagnano← S. Davì

48'

Daniele CasiraghiPenalty cancelled

55'

Luca Pandolfi

56'

D. Casiraghi↳ F. Tait

63'

F. Amatucci← G. Carriero

63'

F. Pittarello← T. Maistrello

66'

F. Pittarello↳ S. Negro

67'

R. Odogwu← E. Pecorino

70'

E. Baldini← L. Pandolfi

76'

76'

79'

81'

81'

A. Magrassi← C. Cassano

83'

A. Cisco← L. Ghiringhelli

83'

G. Lunetta← J. Broh

89'

Andrea Masiello

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CittadellaSudtirol

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots5

5Corners2

13Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots5

6On Target2

6Off Target2

2Blocked1

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

333Total Passes374

229Accurate Passes243

69%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

0Offsides2