Sudtirol 1–1 Carrarese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Carrarese

11/8/2025

Serie B · Round 12Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sudtirol52%

×Draw25%

Carrarese23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchCarrarese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.00

Sudtirol

1.62

Carrarese

1.00

Sudtirol creates 62% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.37

creates per match

0.99

1.01

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.37

Carrarese

0.99

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.01

Carrarese

1.86

-0.74scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Sudtirol-0.74scores less

Carrarese-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Carrarese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

77%

Sudtirol or Carrarese

75%

Draw or Carrarese

48%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

27%

Carrarese wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

80%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

48%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

22%

Carrarese 1+ goals

63%

Carrarese 2+ goals

26%

Carrarese 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

69%

Carrarese (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 8 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.86 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.37 + Carrarese defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Carrarese attack 0.99 + Sudtirol defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sudtirol scores more

52%

level

25%

Carrarese scores more

23%

Sudtirol at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff