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Carrarese vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Carrarese
Carrarese
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sudtirol
Sudtirol
2/7/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 23Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Carrarese47%
×Draw26%
Sudtirol27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrarese
1.46
Sudtirol
1.04

Carrarese creates 40% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Carrarese
1.60
Sudtirol
0.78

allows per match

Carrarese
1.29
Sudtirol
1.31

finishing

Carrarese-0.24scores less
Sudtirol-0.34scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Sudtirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw
73%
Carrarese or Sudtirol
74%
Draw or Sudtirol
53%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+
23%
Sudtirol wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals
77%
Carrarese 2+ goals
43%
Carrarese 3+ goals
18%
Sudtirol 1+ goals
65%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
28%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)
63%
Sudtirol (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.60 + Sudtirol defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sudtirol attack 0.78 + Carrarese defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Carrarese scores more
47%
level
26%
Sudtirol scores more
27%

Carrarese at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
F. OlianaCarrareseCarrarese · D
7.9

Match Events

49'
Simone Davì
63'
D. Crnigoj← M. R. Frigerio
63'
R. Odogwu← E. Pecorino
67'
Silvio Merkaj
67'
S. Verdi← S. Merkaj
70'
F. Di Stefano← T. Rubino
79'
Fabio Abiuso
81'
M. Finotto← L. Hasa
81'
J. Rouhi← N. Belloni
89'
F. Bordon← D. Casiraghi
89'
D. Brik← F. Tait
90+3'
Filippo Oliana
90'
F. Melegoni← E. Zuelli
90'
E. Torregrossa← F. Abiuso

Possession

63%Carrarese

Shots

15Carrarese

Pass accuracy

54%Carrarese

Statistics

CarrareseSudtirol
Overview
63%Possession37%
15Total Shots10
0.59Expected Goals (xG)0.74
5Corners6
5Fouls19
Shots
15Total Shots10
5On Target1
5Off Target4
5Blocked5
7Inside Box8
8Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
520Total Passes291
433Accurate Passes206
83%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
0.38Goals Prevented0.38
Discipline
5Fouls19
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Carrarese vs Sudtirol

Carrarese and Sudtirol drew 0-0 in Serie B on February 7, 2026.

Carrarese controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.