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Sudet vs PEPO — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Sudet
Sudet
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
PEPO
PEPO
5/4/2019Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 1Lehtomäki tekonurmi (Kouvola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sudet20%
×Draw19%
PEPO60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudet
1.28
PEPO
2.33

PEPO creates 82% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sudet
0.82
PEPO
1.65

allows per match

Sudet
3.00
PEPO
1.75

finishing

Sudet+0.00on par
PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudet ↓

PEPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sudet or draw
40%
Sudet or PEPO
81%
Draw or PEPO
80%

Winning margin

Sudet wins by 2+
8%
PEPO wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Sudet 1+ goals
72%
Sudet 2+ goals
37%
Sudet 3+ goals
14%
PEPO 1+ goals
90%
PEPO 2+ goals
67%
PEPO 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Sudet (draw refunded)
25%
PEPO (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudet at home — creates 0.82, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

PEPO away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.75 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudet attack 0.82 + PEPO defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.28

PEPO attack 1.65 + Sudet defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sudet scores more
20%
level
19%
PEPO scores more
60%

PEPO at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Sudet 0–4 PEPO

PEPO beat Sudet 4-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Lehtomäki tekonurmi (Kouvola).