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PEPO vs Sudet — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

PEPO
PEPO
FT
8 – 1
Sudet
Sudet
9/19/2019Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 20Kimpisen Urheilupuisto (Lappeenranta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

PEPO75%
×Draw15%
Sudet10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEPO
2.75
Sudet
0.92

PEPO creates 199% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 11 away

creates per match

PEPO
2.24
Sudet
0.82

allows per match

PEPO
1.01
Sudet
3.27

finishing

PEPO+0.00on par
Sudet+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEPO ↓

Sudet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

PEPO or draw
90%
PEPO or Sudet
85%
Draw or Sudet
25%

Winning margin

PEPO wins by 2+
54%
Sudet wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

PEPO 1+ goals
93%
PEPO 2+ goals
75%
PEPO 3+ goals
51%
Sudet 1+ goals
60%
Sudet 2+ goals
23%
Sudet 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

PEPO (draw refunded)
88%
Sudet (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEPO at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.01 · 68 matches

Sudet away — creates 0.82, concedes 3.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEPO attack 2.24 + Sudet defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.75

Sudet attack 0.82 + PEPO defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

PEPO scores more
75%
level
15%
Sudet scores more
10%

PEPO at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: PEPO 8–1 Sudet

PEPO beat Sudet 8-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on September 19, 2019.

The match was played at Kimpisen Urheilupuisto (Lappeenranta).