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Südburgenland W vs Landhaus W — Frauenliga 2019

Südburgenland W
Südburgenland W
CANC
00:00
Landhaus W
Landhaus W
3/21/2020FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 10FußballArena Mischendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Südburgenland W6%
×Draw10%
Landhaus W84%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Südburgenland W
0.81
Landhaus W
3.37

Landhaus W creates 316% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Südburgenland W
1.00
Landhaus W
3.08

allows per match

Südburgenland W
3.66
Landhaus W
0.62

finishing

Südburgenland W+0.00on par
Landhaus W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Südburgenland W ↓

Landhaus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–29%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Südburgenland W or draw
16%
Südburgenland W or Landhaus W
90%
Draw or Landhaus W
94%

Winning margin

Südburgenland W wins by 2+
2%
Landhaus W wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Südburgenland W 1+ goals
56%
Südburgenland W 2+ goals
19%
Südburgenland W 3+ goals
5%
Landhaus W 1+ goals
96%
Landhaus W 2+ goals
84%
Landhaus W 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Südburgenland W (draw refunded)
6%
Landhaus W (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Südburgenland W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.66 · 32 matches

Landhaus W away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Südburgenland W attack 1.00 + Landhaus W defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Landhaus W attack 3.08 + Südburgenland W defence 3.66 → ÷2 → 3.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Südburgenland W scores more
6%
level
10%
Landhaus W scores more
84%

Landhaus W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Landhaus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Südburgenland W host Landhaus W

March 21, 2020: Südburgenland W take on Landhaus W in Frauenliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Südburgenland W host Landhaus W at FußballArena Mischendorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.