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Landhaus W vs Südburgenland W — Frauenliga 2019

Landhaus W
Landhaus W
FT
5 – 1
Südburgenland W
Südburgenland W
8/18/2019FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 1Sportplatz Union Landhaus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Landhaus W75%
×Draw13%
Südburgenland W11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Landhaus W
3.35
Südburgenland W
1.29

Landhaus W creates 160% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 35 away

creates per match

Landhaus W
2.64
Südburgenland W
1.09

allows per match

Landhaus W
1.50
Südburgenland W
4.06

finishing

Landhaus W+0.00on par
Südburgenland W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landhaus W ↓

Südburgenland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Landhaus W or draw
89%
Landhaus W or Südburgenland W
87%
Draw or Südburgenland W
25%

Winning margin

Landhaus W wins by 2+
57%
Südburgenland W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Landhaus W 1+ goals
96%
Landhaus W 2+ goals
84%
Landhaus W 3+ goals
63%
Südburgenland W 1+ goals
72%
Südburgenland W 2+ goals
37%
Südburgenland W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Landhaus W (draw refunded)
87%
Südburgenland W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landhaus W at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Südburgenland W away — creates 1.09, concedes 4.06 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landhaus W attack 2.64 + Südburgenland W defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 3.35

Südburgenland W attack 1.09 + Landhaus W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Landhaus W scores more
75%
level
13%
Südburgenland W scores more
11%

Landhaus W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Landhaus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Landhaus W vs Südburgenland W

Landhaus W beat Südburgenland W 5-1 in Frauenliga on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Union Landhaus in Wien.