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Sudan vs Equatorial Guinea — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Sudan
Sudan
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
3/22/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 7Al-Hilal Stadium (Omdurman (Umm Durman))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sudan21%
×Draw25%
Equatorial Guinea53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudan
0.89
Equatorial Guinea
1.56

Equatorial Guinea creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sudan
0.40
Equatorial Guinea
1.13

allows per match

Sudan
2.00
Equatorial Guinea
1.38

finishing

Sudan+0.00on par
Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudan ↓

Equatorial Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sudan or draw
47%
Sudan or Equatorial Guinea
75%
Draw or Equatorial Guinea
79%

Winning margin

Sudan wins by 2+
7%
Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Sudan 1+ goals
59%
Sudan 2+ goals
22%
Sudan 3+ goals
6%
Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
79%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
46%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sudan (draw refunded)
29%
Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudan at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Equatorial Guinea away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudan attack 0.40 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.89

Equatorial Guinea attack 1.13 + Sudan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sudan scores more
21%
level
25%
Equatorial Guinea scores more
53%

Equatorial Guinea at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Equatorial Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Sudan 1–4 Equatorial Guinea

Equatorial Guinea beat Sudan 4-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on March 22, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium (Omdurman (Umm Durman)).