Equatorial Guinea 1–0 Sudan: Result & Stats

Equatorial Guinea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sudan

9/8/2018

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Estadio de Bata (Bata)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Equatorial Guinea50%

×Draw27%

Sudan23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Equatorial GuineaExpected goals in this matchSudan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.88

Equatorial Guinea

1.44

Sudan

0.88

Equatorial Guinea creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea

1.00

Sudan

0.75

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea

1.00

Sudan

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Sudan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw

77%

Equatorial Guinea or Sudan

73%

Draw or Sudan

50%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+

25%

Sudan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals

76%

Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals

42%

Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals

18%

Sudan 1+ goals

59%

Sudan 2+ goals

22%

Sudan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)

69%

Sudan (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Sudan away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 1.00 + Sudan defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sudan attack 0.75 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more

50%

level

27%

Sudan scores more

23%

Equatorial Guinea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Equatorial Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff