SUD America 2–1 Bella Vista: Result & Stats

SUD America

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bella Vista

5/25/2019

Segunda División · Round 4Parque Capurro (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

SUD America44%

×Draw28%

Bella Vista29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SUD AmericaExpected goals in this matchBella Vista

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.03

SUD America

1.33

Bella Vista

1.03

SUD America creates 29% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 27 away

1.03

creates per match

0.85

1.21

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

SUD America

1.03

Bella Vista

0.85

allows per match

SUD America

1.21

Bella Vista

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SUD America+0.00on par

Bella Vista+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SUD America ↓

Bella Vista →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

SUD America or draw

71%

SUD America or Bella Vista

72%

Draw or Bella Vista

56%

Winning margin

SUD America wins by 2+

20%

Bella Vista wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SUD America 1+ goals

74%

SUD America 2+ goals

38%

SUD America 3+ goals

15%

Bella Vista 1+ goals

64%

Bella Vista 2+ goals

28%

Bella Vista 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

SUD America (draw refunded)

60%

Bella Vista (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SUD America at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

Bella Vista away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SUD America attack 1.03 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bella Vista attack 0.85 + SUD America defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SUD America scores more

44%

level

28%

Bella Vista scores more

29%

SUD America at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SUD America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff