Bella Vista 1–0 SUD America: Result & Stats

Bella Vista

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SUD America

8/27/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 14Parque Capurro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bella Vista31%

×Draw28%

SUD America41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bella VistaExpected goals in this matchSUD America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.29

Bella Vista

1.09

SUD America

1.29

SUD America creates 18% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 70 away

0.89

creates per match

0.96

1.63

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Bella Vista

0.89

SUD America

0.96

allows per match

Bella Vista

1.63

SUD America

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bella Vista+0.00on par

SUD America+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bella Vista ↓

SUD America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bella Vista or draw

59%

Bella Vista or SUD America

72%

Draw or SUD America

69%

Winning margin

Bella Vista wins by 2+

12%

SUD America wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bella Vista 1+ goals

66%

Bella Vista 2+ goals

30%

Bella Vista 3+ goals

10%

SUD America 1+ goals

72%

SUD America 2+ goals

37%

SUD America 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bella Vista (draw refunded)

43%

SUD America (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bella Vista at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

SUD America away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bella Vista attack 0.89 + SUD America defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

SUD America attack 0.96 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bella Vista scores more

31%

level

28%

SUD America scores more

41%

SUD America at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SUD America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff