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Subiza vs Lourdes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Subiza
Subiza
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lourdes
Lourdes
11/30/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 15Estadio Sotoburu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Subiza61%
×Draw22%
Lourdes17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Subiza
1.94
Lourdes
0.92

Subiza creates 111% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 29 away

creates per match

Subiza
1.96
Lourdes
0.86

allows per match

Subiza
0.98
Lourdes
1.93

finishing

Subiza+0.00on par
Lourdes+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiza ↓

Lourdes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Subiza or draw
83%
Subiza or Lourdes
78%
Draw or Lourdes
39%

Winning margin

Subiza wins by 2+
37%
Lourdes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Subiza 1+ goals
86%
Subiza 2+ goals
58%
Subiza 3+ goals
30%
Lourdes 1+ goals
60%
Lourdes 2+ goals
23%
Lourdes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Subiza (draw refunded)
78%
Lourdes (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Subiza at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

Lourdes away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Subiza attack 1.96 + Lourdes defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.94

Lourdes attack 0.86 + Subiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Subiza scores more
61%
level
22%
Lourdes scores more
17%

Subiza at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Subiza vs Lourdes

Lourdes beat Subiza 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Sotoburu in Subiza.