Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lourdes vs Subiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Lourdes
Lourdes
CANC
00:00
Subiza
Subiza
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 34Estadio Luis Asarta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lourdes35%
×Draw27%
Subiza39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lourdes
1.23
Subiza
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 93 away

creates per match

Lourdes
1.25
Subiza
1.32

allows per match

Lourdes
1.29
Subiza
1.20

finishing

Lourdes+0.00on par
Subiza+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lourdes ↓

Subiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lourdes or draw
61%
Lourdes or Subiza
73%
Draw or Subiza
65%

Winning margin

Lourdes wins by 2+
15%
Subiza wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lourdes 1+ goals
71%
Lourdes 2+ goals
35%
Lourdes 3+ goals
13%
Subiza 1+ goals
73%
Subiza 2+ goals
38%
Subiza 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lourdes (draw refunded)
47%
Subiza (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lourdes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Subiza away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lourdes attack 1.25 + Subiza defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Subiza attack 1.32 + Lourdes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lourdes scores more
35%
level
27%
Subiza scores more
39%

Subiza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lourdes host Subiza

April 19, 2020: Lourdes take on Subiza in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lourdes host Subiza at Estadio Luis Asarta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.