Subiaco 0–0 Kalamunda City: Result & Stats

Subiaco

FT

0 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Kalamunda City

5/17/2025

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 8Rosalie Park East 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Subiaco39%

×Draw27%

Kalamunda City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SubiacoExpected goals in this matchKalamunda City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.20

Subiaco

1.32

Kalamunda City

1.20

Subiaco creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

1.47

creates per match

0.82

1.57

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Subiaco

1.47

Kalamunda City

0.82

allows per match

Subiaco

1.57

Kalamunda City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Subiaco+0.00on par

Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiaco ↓

Kalamunda City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Subiaco or draw

66%

Subiaco or Kalamunda City

73%

Draw or Kalamunda City

61%

Winning margin

Subiaco wins by 2+

18%

Kalamunda City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Subiaco 1+ goals

73%

Subiaco 2+ goals

38%

Subiaco 3+ goals

15%

Kalamunda City 1+ goals

70%

Kalamunda City 2+ goals

34%

Kalamunda City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Subiaco (draw refunded)

54%

Kalamunda City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Subiaco at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Kalamunda City away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Subiaco attack 1.47 + Kalamunda City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kalamunda City attack 0.82 + Subiaco defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Subiaco scores more

39%

level

27%

Kalamunda City scores more

34%

Subiaco at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Subiaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff