Kalamunda City 4–1 Subiaco: Result & Stats

Kalamunda City

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Subiaco

8/2/2025

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 19Maida Vale Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kalamunda City36%

×Draw22%

Subiaco42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalamunda CityExpected goals in this matchSubiaco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.83

Kalamunda City

1.67

Subiaco

1.83

Subiaco creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

1.27

creates per match

1.57

2.09

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Kalamunda City

1.27

Subiaco

1.57

allows per match

Kalamunda City

2.09

Subiaco

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Subiaco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalamunda City ↓

Subiaco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kalamunda City or draw

58%

Kalamunda City or Subiaco

78%

Draw or Subiaco

64%

Winning margin

Kalamunda City wins by 2+

18%

Subiaco wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kalamunda City 1+ goals

81%

Kalamunda City 2+ goals

50%

Kalamunda City 3+ goals

23%

Subiaco 1+ goals

84%

Subiaco 2+ goals

54%

Subiaco 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Kalamunda City (draw refunded)

46%

Subiaco (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalamunda City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Subiaco away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalamunda City attack 1.27 + Subiaco defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Subiaco attack 1.57 + Kalamunda City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kalamunda City scores more

36%

level

22%

Subiaco scores more

42%

Subiaco at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Subiaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff