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Stuttgarter Kickers vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Stuttgarter Kickers
Stuttgarter Kickers
FT
8 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
I. Colic 90'
K. Dicklhuber 84'
M. Obernosterer 80'
F. Berisha 71', 34', 5'
D. Braig 22'
L. Campagna 14'
D. Tritschler 87'
11/12/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 17GAZİ-Stadion auf der Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Stuttgarter Kickers70%
×Draw18%
Freiburger FC13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stuttgarter Kickers
2.38
Freiburger FC
0.91

Stuttgarter Kickers creates 162% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Stuttgarter Kickers
2.69
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Stuttgarter Kickers
0.69
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Stuttgarter Kickers+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter Kickers ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stuttgarter Kickers or draw
87%
Stuttgarter Kickers or Freiburger FC
82%
Draw or Freiburger FC
30%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter Kickers wins by 2+
47%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Stuttgarter Kickers 1+ goals
91%
Stuttgarter Kickers 2+ goals
68%
Stuttgarter Kickers 3+ goals
42%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
60%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
23%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter Kickers (draw refunded)
85%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter Kickers at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter Kickers attack 2.69 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.38

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Stuttgarter Kickers defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Stuttgarter Kickers scores more
70%
level
18%
Freiburger FC scores more
13%

Stuttgarter Kickers at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Stuttgarter Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
F. Berisha
14'
L. Campagna
22'
D. Braig
34'
F. Berisha
71'
F. Berisha
80'
M. Obernosterer
84'
K. Dicklhuber
87'
D. Tritschler
90'
I. Colic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Stuttgarter Kickers 8–1 Freiburger FC

Stuttgarter Kickers beat Freiburger FC 8-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 12, 2022.

Goals: F. Berisha (5', 34', 71'), L. Campagna (14'), D. Braig (22'), M. Obernosterer (80'), K. Dicklhuber (84'), D. Tritschler (87'), I. Colic (90').

The match was played at GAZİ-Stadion auf der Waldau in Stuttgart.