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Freiburger FC vs Stuttgarter Kickers — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Stuttgarter Kickers
Stuttgarter Kickers
F. Berisha 84'
L. Campagna 73'
D. Braig 69' (pen)
N. Blank 62'
L. Maier 34'
5/27/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 34Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Freiburger FC13%
×Draw17%
Stuttgarter Kickers70%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburger FC
1.05
Stuttgarter Kickers
2.58

Stuttgarter Kickers creates 146% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 43 away

creates per match

Freiburger FC
1.52
Stuttgarter Kickers
2.95

allows per match

Freiburger FC
2.21
Stuttgarter Kickers
0.58

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par
Stuttgarter Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

Stuttgarter Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw
30%
Freiburger FC or Stuttgarter Kickers
83%
Draw or Stuttgarter Kickers
87%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+
5%
Stuttgarter Kickers wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals
65%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
28%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
9%
Stuttgarter Kickers 1+ goals
92%
Stuttgarter Kickers 2+ goals
72%
Stuttgarter Kickers 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
16%
Stuttgarter Kickers (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

Stuttgarter Kickers away — creates 2.95, concedes 0.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + Stuttgarter Kickers defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.05

Stuttgarter Kickers attack 2.95 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Freiburger FC scores more
13%
level
17%
Stuttgarter Kickers scores more
70%

Stuttgarter Kickers at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Stuttgarter Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
L. Maier
62'
N. Blank
69'
D. BraigPenalty
73'
L. Campagna
84'
F. Berisha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Freiburger FC 0–5 Stuttgarter Kickers

Stuttgarter Kickers beat Freiburger FC 5-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 27, 2023.

Goals: L. Maier (34'), N. Blank (62'), D. Braig (69' pen), L. Campagna (73'), F. Berisha (84').

The match was played at Dietenbach-Sportpark in Freiburg im Breisgau.