Stuttgarter Kickers vs Bruchsal

Stuttgarter Kickers

CANC

12:00

Bruchsal

5/1/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 32GAZİ-Stadion auf der Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Stuttgarter Kickers72%

×Draw15%

Bruchsal12%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter KickersExpected goals in this matchBruchsal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

1.08

Stuttgarter Kickers

2.79

Bruchsal

1.08

Stuttgarter Kickers creates 158% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

2.69

creates per match

1.48

0.69

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Stuttgarter Kickers

2.69

Bruchsal

1.48

allows per match

Stuttgarter Kickers

0.69

Bruchsal

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter Kickers+0.00on par

Bruchsal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter Kickers ↓

Bruchsal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Stuttgarter Kickers or draw

88%

Stuttgarter Kickers or Bruchsal

85%

Draw or Bruchsal

28%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter Kickers wins by 2+

52%

Bruchsal wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Stuttgarter Kickers 1+ goals

94%

Stuttgarter Kickers 2+ goals

76%

Stuttgarter Kickers 3+ goals

52%

Bruchsal 1+ goals

66%

Bruchsal 2+ goals

29%

Bruchsal 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter Kickers (draw refunded)

85%

Bruchsal (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter Kickers at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

Bruchsal away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter Kickers attack 2.69 + Bruchsal defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.79

Bruchsal attack 1.48 + Stuttgarter Kickers defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Stuttgarter Kickers scores more

72%

level

15%

Bruchsal scores more

12%

Stuttgarter Kickers at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Stuttgarter Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff