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Bruchsal vs Stuttgarter Kickers — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bruchsal
Bruchsal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stuttgarter Kickers
Stuttgarter Kickers
4/27/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 32Städtisches Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bruchsal13%
×Draw17%
Stuttgarter Kickers71%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruchsal
0.98
Stuttgarter Kickers
2.54

Stuttgarter Kickers creates 159% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 43 away

creates per match

Bruchsal
1.38
Stuttgarter Kickers
2.95

allows per match

Bruchsal
2.13
Stuttgarter Kickers
0.58

finishing

Bruchsal+0.00on par
Stuttgarter Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruchsal ↓

Stuttgarter Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bruchsal or draw
29%
Bruchsal or Stuttgarter Kickers
83%
Draw or Stuttgarter Kickers
87%

Winning margin

Bruchsal wins by 2+
4%
Stuttgarter Kickers wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Bruchsal 1+ goals
62%
Bruchsal 2+ goals
26%
Bruchsal 3+ goals
8%
Stuttgarter Kickers 1+ goals
92%
Stuttgarter Kickers 2+ goals
72%
Stuttgarter Kickers 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Bruchsal (draw refunded)
15%
Stuttgarter Kickers (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruchsal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

Stuttgarter Kickers away — creates 2.95, concedes 0.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruchsal attack 1.38 + Stuttgarter Kickers defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.98

Stuttgarter Kickers attack 2.95 + Bruchsal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bruchsal scores more
13%
level
17%
Stuttgarter Kickers scores more
71%

Stuttgarter Kickers at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Stuttgarter Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Bruchsal 2–2 Stuttgarter Kickers

Bruchsal and Stuttgarter Kickers drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 27, 2022.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion in Bruchsal.