Stuttgarter K'rs U19 0–2 Stuttgart U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stuttgart U19

T. Kastanaras 77'

R. Paula 23'

4/30/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 21BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1923%

×Draw20%

Stuttgart U1957%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.31

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.42

Stuttgart U19

2.31

Stuttgart U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 74 away

1.56

creates per match

2.74

1.88

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Stuttgart U19

2.74

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Stuttgart U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

43%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Stuttgart U19

80%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

77%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

10%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

76%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

41%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

17%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

90%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

67%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.74 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

23%

level

20%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

57%

Stuttgart U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

R. Paula

46'

H. Eroğlu← M. Pilic

46'

M. Wagner← D. Knappe

69'

E. Widmann← C. Drakas

76'

B. Hausmann← P. Seemann

77'

M. Mladenovic← C. Sanozidis

77'

T. Kastanaras

81'

M. Sahin← T. Kastanaras

84'

B. Etemi← E. Krieger

84'

L. Mestre← L. Reichardt

Stuttgarter

Stuttgart

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Y. Dreyer

46'▲H. Eroğlu←▼M. Pilic

76'▲B. Hausmann←▼P. Seemann

77'▲M. Mladenovic←▼C. Sanozidis

84'▲B. Etemi←▼E. Krieger

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

EroğluHausmannMladenovicEtemiDanquahMilutinovic

Manager: N. Willig

46'▲M. Wagner←▼D. Knappe

69'▲E. Widmann←▼C. Drakas

81'▲M. Sahin←▼T. Kastanaras

84'▲L. Mestre←▼L. Reichardt

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

WagnerWidmannSahinMestreScharnerAmbrosiusKönig

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Stuttgart U19

Stuttgart U19 beat Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 30, 2022.

Goals: R. Paula (23'), T. Kastanaras (77').

The match was played at BZA Waldau in Stuttgart.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Stuttgart U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Stuttgart U19