Stuttgart U19 1–0 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Stuttgart U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

N. Bätzner 82'

8/11/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 1Robert-Schlienz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgart U1965%

×Draw17%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1917%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgart U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.32

Stuttgart U19

2.65

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.32

Stuttgart U19 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 59 away

2.68

creates per match

1.27

1.37

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Stuttgart U19

2.68

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Stuttgart U19

1.37

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw

83%

Stuttgart U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

83%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

35%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

44%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

93%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

74%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

48%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

73%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

38%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.68 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.65

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more

65%

level

17%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

17%

Stuttgart U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Bätzner← A. Kopf

46'

N. Ganaus← G. Gamuzza

65'

L. Schuckenböhmer← H. Centinkaya

70'

J. Wild← N. Ganaus

78'

J. Djemanovic← E. Hottmann

82'

N. Bätzner

84'

R. Filipovic← P. Janczukowicz

90'

I. Cabraja← P. Lockl

Stuttgart

Stuttgarter

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Willig

46'▲N. Bätzner←▼A. Kopf

65'▲L. Schuckenböhmer←▼H. Centinkaya

78'▲J. Djemanovic←▼E. Hottmann

90'▲I. Cabraja←▼P. Lockl

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

BätznerSchuckenböhmerDjemanovicCabrajaMaierReutterVolkert

Manager: M. Kovacevic

46'▲N. Ganaus←▼G. Gamuzza

70'▲J. Wild←▼N. Ganaus

84'▲R. Filipovic←▼P. Janczukowicz

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

GanausWildFilipovicNujicUkelaIrionJukić

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgart U19 1–0 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Stuttgart U19 beat Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 11, 2018.

Goals: N. Bätzner (82').

The match was played at Robert-Schlienz-Stadion in Stuttgart.

Stuttgart U19 vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgart U19 1–0 Stuttgarter K'rs U19