Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3–2 Saarbrücken U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Saarbrücken U19

L. Schnerring 48', 45'

T. Lennerth 9'

A. Dos Santos Reis 77'

F. Rupp 31'

12/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 14BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1954%

×Draw20%

Saarbrücken U1926%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.53

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.27

Saarbrücken U19

1.53

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 37 away

1.56

creates per match

1.19

1.88

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

74%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Saarbrücken U19

80%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

46%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

33%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

90%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

66%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

39%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

78%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

45%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.27

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

54%

level

20%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

26%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stuttgarter K'rs U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

31'

45'

48'

65'

A. Dos Santos Reis← E. Erdogan

65'

L. Strewenski← L. Behr

65'

M. Seitzer← N. Krämer

65'

N. Grucza← B. Erdogan

67'

E. Borgia← T. Lennerth

67'

M. Seeger← L. Schnerring

77'

A. Dos Santos Reis

80'

Y. Ibrahim← M. Sulejmani

90+3'

F. Niculescu← S. Djokaj

Stuttgarter

Saarbrücken

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lennerth

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: S. Ackermann

67'▲E. Borgia←▼T. Lennerth

67'▲M. Seeger←▼L. Schnerring

80'▲Y. Ibrahim←▼M. Sulejmani

90+3'▲F. Niculescu←▼S. Djokaj

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

BorgiaSeegerIbrahimNiculescuKöstel

Manager: S. D`Andrea

65'▲A. Dos Santos Reis←▼E. Erdogan

65'▲L. Strewenski←▼L. Behr

65'▲M. Seitzer←▼N. Krämer

65'▲N. Grucza←▼B. Erdogan

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

ReisStrewenskiSeitzerGruczaFerringSahan

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Saarbrücken U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 7, 2024.

Goals: T. Lennerth (9'), F. Rupp (31'), L. Schnerring (45', 48'), A. Dos Santos Reis (77').

The match was played at BZA Waldau in Stuttgart.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Saarbrücken U19