Saarbrücken U19 1–0 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Saarbrücken U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

S. Maas 72'

4/23/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 20FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1940%

×Draw22%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1938%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saarbrücken U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.86

Saarbrücken U19

1.91

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 59 away

1.21

creates per match

1.27

2.45

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19

1.21

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19

2.45

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw

62%

Saarbrücken U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

78%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

60%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

22%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

85%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

57%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

30%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

84%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

55%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

38%

Saarbrücken U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Saarbrücken U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

T. Wachall← A. Lazzano

67'

M. Mladenovic← E. Krieger

70'

F. Geißler← D. Cullmann

72'

S. Maas

75'

R. Terpsiadis← T. Hohloch

81'

B. Etemi← Y. Mallet

85'

Y. Flausse← L. Weis

Saarbrücken

Stuttgarter

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: E. Melunovic

46'▲T. Wachall←▼A. Lazzano

70'▲F. Geißler←▼D. Cullmann

85'▲Y. Flausse←▼L. Weis

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

WachallGeißlerFlausseMagemaDupréWeberMagar

Manager: Y. Dreyer

67'▲M. Mladenovic←▼E. Krieger

75'▲R. Terpsiadis←▼T. Hohloch

81'▲B. Etemi←▼Y. Mallet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

MladenovicTerpsiadisEtemiHausmannMitrovicKohlerHampp

U19 Bundesliga: Saarbrücken U19 1–0 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Saarbrücken U19 beat Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 23, 2022.

Goals: S. Maas (72').

The match was played at FC Sportfeld in Saarbrücken.

Saarbrücken U19 vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Saarbrücken U19 1–0 Stuttgarter K'rs U19