Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2–1 Nürnberg U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nürnberg U19

F. Hut 90+3'

C. Quatruccio 41'

P. Harlaß 14' (pen)

2/5/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16Kunstrasenplatz SV Stuttgarter Kickers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1934%

×Draw22%

Nürnberg U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchNürnberg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.91

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.67

Nürnberg U19

1.91

Nürnberg U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 71 away

1.56

creates per match

1.94

1.88

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Nürnberg U19

1.94

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Nürnberg U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Nürnberg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

56%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Nürnberg U19

78%

Draw or Nürnberg U19

66%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

17%

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

81%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

50%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

23%

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

85%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

57%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Nürnberg U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.77 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.67

Nürnberg U19 attack 1.94 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

34%

level

22%

Nürnberg U19 scores more

44%

Nürnberg U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

P. HarlaßPenalty

41'

C. Quatruccio

45'

E. Brandenburg← F. Dolderer

57'

K. Žižek← L. Langhans

66'

F. Hut← L. Rasic

70'

L. Zottele← I. Usta

70'

S. Reingans← E. Engelhardt

71'

P. Karastergios← I. Kamenis

82'

M. Seltenreich← L. Wiesheu

90'

E. Gashi← F. Rettig

90+3'

F. Hut

Stuttgarter

Nürnberg

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Trabert

45'▲E. Brandenburg←▼F. Dolderer

66'▲F. Hut←▼L. Rasic

71'▲P. Karastergios←▼I. Kamenis

82'▲M. Seltenreich←▼L. Wiesheu

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

BrandenburgHutKarastergiosSeltenreichLudwigUdohMichalik

Manager: P. Matarazzo

57'▲K. Žižek←▼L. Langhans

70'▲L. Zottele←▼I. Usta

70'▲S. Reingans←▼E. Engelhardt

90'▲E. Gashi←▼F. Rettig

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

ŽižekZotteleReingansGashiColonnaWenzelSchärtel

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Nürnberg U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 beat Nürnberg U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 5, 2017.

Goals: P. Harlaß (14' pen), C. Quatruccio (41'), F. Hut (90+3').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz SV Stuttgarter Kickers in Stuttgart.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Nürnberg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Nürnberg U19