Nürnberg U19 0–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Nürnberg U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

R. Kasiar 13'

8/21/2016

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3Sportpark Valznerweiher Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Nürnberg U1959%

×Draw19%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.52

Nürnberg U19

2.54

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.52

Nürnberg U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 59 away

2.46

creates per match

1.27

1.77

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Nürnberg U19

2.46

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Nürnberg U19

1.77

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw

78%

Nürnberg U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

81%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

41%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

38%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

92%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

72%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

46%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

78%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

45%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.46 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.54

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

22%

Nürnberg U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

R. Kasiar

58'

T. Udoh← M. Faßbender

60'

P. Karastergios← C. Quatruccio

62'

F. Rettig← L. Langhans

70'

I. Usta← P. Schärtel

70'

M. Pfrogner← C. Colonna

83'

M. Tiefenbrunner← N. Sommer

87'

L. Rasic← D. Jurić

90'

M. Seltenreich← F. Dolderer

Nürnberg

Stuttgarter

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Matarazzo

62'▲F. Rettig←▼L. Langhans

70'▲I. Usta←▼P. Schärtel

70'▲M. Pfrogner←▼C. Colonna

83'▲M. Tiefenbrunner←▼N. Sommer

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

RettigUstaPfrognerTiefenbrunnerScholzWenzelSevim

Manager: R. Trabert

58'▲T. Udoh←▼M. Faßbender

60'▲P. Karastergios←▼C. Quatruccio

87'▲L. Rasic←▼D. Jurić

90'▲M. Seltenreich←▼F. Dolderer

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

UdohKarastergiosRasicSeltenreichWiesheuLudwigSchneck