Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2–1 Kaiserslautern U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kaiserslautern U19

K. Nkem 32', 30'

L. Hotopp 3'

11/10/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 11BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1942%

×Draw22%

Kaiserslautern U1936%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.75

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.91

Kaiserslautern U19

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 68 away

1.56

creates per match

1.62

1.88

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

64%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

78%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

58%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

23%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

85%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

57%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

30%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

83%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

52%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

42%

level

22%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

36%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stuttgarter K'rs U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

L. Hotopp

30'

K. Nkem

32'

K. Nkem

46'

A. Gözütok← F. Reisinger

46'

M. Fesser← E. Ludwig

60'

D. Blum← T. Fladung

65'

G. Gamuzza← J. Wild

80'

B. Cetinkaya← K. Nkem

82'

L. Lazar← M. Neukirch

83'

L. Maric← A. Latifovic

88'

M. Radel← A. Selimi

Stuttgarter

Kaiserslautern

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Nkem

Janczukow

Manager: M. Kovacevic

65'▲G. Gamuzza←▼J. Wild

80'▲B. Cetinkaya←▼K. Nkem

83'▲L. Maric←▼A. Latifovic

88'▲M. Radel←▼A. Selimi

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

GamuzzaCetinkayaMaricRadelSanozidisNujicUkela

Manager: M. Laping

46'▲A. Gözütok←▼F. Reisinger

46'▲M. Fesser←▼E. Ludwig

60'▲D. Blum←▼T. Fladung

82'▲L. Lazar←▼M. Neukirch

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

GözütokFesserBlumLazarKajinićChkifaChrist

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2–1 Kaiserslautern U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 beat Kaiserslautern U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 10, 2018.

Goals: L. Hotopp (3'), K. Nkem (30', 32').

The match was played at BZA Waldau in Stuttgart.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2–1 Kaiserslautern U19