Kaiserslautern U19 5–3 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Kaiserslautern U19

FT

5 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

A. Stavridis 90+4', 72'

M. Ludwig 85'

J. Aghajanyan 59'

D. Miftari 13'

A. Babic 89'

M. Lander 82'

O. Keçeci 30'

11/27/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 11Betzenberg Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1955%

×Draw20%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1925%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.45

Kaiserslautern U19

2.23

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.45

Kaiserslautern U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 59 away

1.86

creates per match

1.27

1.63

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.86

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.63

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw

75%

Kaiserslautern U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

80%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

45%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

34%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

89%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

65%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

38%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

77%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

42%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.86 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.23

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

55%

level

20%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

25%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

D. Miftari

30'

O. Keçeci

49'

G. D'Aleo← R. Terpsiadis

59'

J. Aghajanyan

63'

M. Bauer← D. Miftari

63'

H. Eroğlu← M. Hudalla

70'

T. Seib← M. Karas

71'

M. Pilic← J. Kohler

72'

A. Stavridis

75'

B. Hausmann← C. Sanozidis

77'

M. Ludwig← M. Bangura

82'

M. Lander

83'

D. Monteiro de Oliveira← N. Wettengl

85'

M. Ludwig

89'

A. Babic

90+4'

A. Stavridis

Kaiserslautern

Stuttgarter

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Manager: A. Bugera

63'▲M. Bauer←▼D. Miftari

70'▲T. Seib←▼M. Karas

77'▲M. Ludwig←▼M. Bangura

83'▲D. Monteiro de Oliveira←▼N. Wettengl

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

BauerSeibLudwigOliveiraHoorMerkSchön

Manager: Y. Dreyer

49'▲G. D'Aleo←▼R. Terpsiadis

63'▲H. Eroğlu←▼M. Hudalla

71'▲M. Pilic←▼J. Kohler

75'▲B. Hausmann←▼C. Sanozidis

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

D'AleoEroğluPilicHausmannNeaimeSeemannZogjani