Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1–3 Hoffenheim U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hoffenheim U19

B. Sanlitürk 76'

M. Faß 90+5', 41'

J. Wähling 90+2'

10/19/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 9BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1928%

×Draw20%

Hoffenheim U1952%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.33

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.66

Hoffenheim U19

2.33

Hoffenheim U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 76 away

1.56

creates per match

2.79

1.88

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Hoffenheim U19

2.79

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Hoffenheim U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

48%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Hoffenheim U19

80%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

72%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

13%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

81%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

49%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

23%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

90%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

67%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.75 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.79 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

28%

level

20%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

52%

Hoffenheim U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

M. Faß

59'

M. Sulejmani← M. Seeger

61'

A. Riegel← A. Honajzer

61'

M. Penda← G. Pelzer

69'

J. Fields← L. Erlein

69'

T. Spranger← Blessing Makanda

76'

B. Sanlitürk

90'

M. Benzinger← N. Albrecht

90+3'

S. Djokaj← K. Dogan

90'

T. Riehle← O. Hencke

90+4'

V. Taschetta← K. Syutin

90+2'

J. Wähling

90+5'

M. Faß

Stuttgarter

Hoffenheim

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Ackermann

59'▲M. Sulejmani←▼M. Seeger

90'▲M. Benzinger←▼N. Albrecht

90+3'▲S. Djokaj←▼K. Dogan

90'▲T. Riehle←▼O. Hencke

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

SulejmaniBenzingerDjokajRiehleBayerSuckutIbrahim

Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

61'▲A. Riegel←▼A. Honajzer

61'▲M. Penda←▼G. Pelzer

69'▲J. Fields←▼L. Erlein

69'▲T. Spranger←▼Blessing Makanda

90+4'▲V. Taschetta←▼K. Syutin

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

RiegelPendaFieldsSprangerTaschettaGebertPoller

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1–3 Hoffenheim U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 19, 2024.

Goals: M. Faß (41', 90+5'), B. Sanlitürk (76'), J. Wähling (90+2').

The match was played at BZA Waldau in Stuttgart.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1–3 Hoffenheim U19