Hoffenheim U19 5–2 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Hoffenheim U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

T. Poller 85'

M. Faß 70', 48'

L. Krasniqi 47' (pen), 12'

B. Sanlitürk 63'

O. Hencke 44'

8/10/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2Akademie-Arena Rasen 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hoffenheim U1969%

×Draw16%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1915%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoffenheim U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.89

1.31

Hoffenheim U19

2.89

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.31

Hoffenheim U19 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 59 away

3.17

creates per match

1.27

1.36

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19

3.17

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19

1.36

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw

85%

Hoffenheim U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

84%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

31%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

49%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

94%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

78%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

54%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

73%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

38%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.36 · 78 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.17 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.89

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

69%

level

16%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

15%

Hoffenheim U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

L. Krasniqi

44'

O. Hencke

46'

T. Spranger← G. Pelzer

47'

L. KrasniqiPenalty

48'

M. Faß

63'

B. Sanlitürk

70'

M. Faß

75'

76'

J. Fields← Blessing Makanda

77'

E. Borgia← K. Dogan

81'

A. Honajzer← F. Sherlock

81'

V. Taschetta← Z. Tairi

81'

Y. Ibrahim← L. Schnerring

85'

K. Manthey← D. Girmann

85'

M. Maier← M. Faß

85'

T. Poller

Hoffenheim

Stuttgarter

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽2

▼

Faß

Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

46'▲T. Spranger←▼G. Pelzer

76'▲J. Fields←▼Blessing Makanda

81'▲A. Honajzer←▼F. Sherlock

81'▲V. Taschetta←▼Z. Tairi

85'▲K. Manthey←▼D. Girmann

85'▲M. Maier←▼M. Faß

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

SprangerFieldsHonajzerTaschettaMantheyMaierSchönig

Manager: S. Ackermann

77'▲E. Borgia←▼K. Dogan

81'▲Y. Ibrahim←▼L. Schnerring

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

BorgiaIbrahimBayerKöstelPerwitzschkyBühler