Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2–4 Freiburg U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Freiburg U19

S. Djokaj 65', 35'

D. Faram 90', 86'

E. Ouhssakou 19', 3'

8/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 1BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1935%

×Draw22%

Freiburg U1943%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.82

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.63

Freiburg U19

1.82

Freiburg U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 67 away

1.56

creates per match

1.76

1.88

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Freiburg U19

1.76

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Freiburg U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

57%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Freiburg U19

78%

Draw or Freiburg U19

65%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

17%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

80%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

48%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

22%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

84%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

54%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.63

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

35%

level

22%

Freiburg U19 scores more

43%

Freiburg U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

E. Ouhssakou

19'

E. Ouhssakou

35'

S. Djokaj

65'

S. Djokaj

86'

D. Faram

90'

D. Faram

Stuttgarter

Freiburg

Manager: S. Ackermann

Manager: J. Wiedensohler