Freiburg U19 1–3 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Freiburg U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

L. Schulten 15'

P. Scheele 89'

E. Borgia 86'

L. Schnerring 12'

11/30/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 13Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Freiburg U1961%

×Draw19%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1921%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.43

Freiburg U19

2.52

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.43

Freiburg U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 59 away

2.44

creates per match

1.27

1.59

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Freiburg U19

2.44

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Freiburg U19

1.59

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw

79%

Freiburg U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

81%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

39%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

40%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

92%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

71%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

45%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

76%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

42%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.52

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more

61%

level

19%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

21%

Freiburg U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

L. Schnerring

15'

L. Schulten

46'

E. Redzic← R. Tarnutzer

51'

M. Sulejmani← T. Riehle

64'

72'

83'

86'

86'

89'

90+6'

Y. Ibrahim← L. Schnerring

90+6'

F. Niculescu← S. Djokaj

Freiburg

Stuttgarter

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: B. Weis

46'▲E. Redzic←▼R. Tarnutzer

64'▲R. Maier←▼L. Sawas

72'▲E. Klaus←▼M. Klein

86'▲S. Probst←▼Z. Rauch

Freiburg U19 substitutes

RedzicMaierKlausProbstBilgicKatzBerger

Manager: S. Ackermann

51'▲M. Sulejmani←▼T. Riehle

83'▲E. Borgia←▼K. Dogan

90+6'▲Y. Ibrahim←▼L. Schnerring

90+6'▲F. Niculescu←▼S. Djokaj

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

SulejmaniBorgiaIbrahimNiculescuBayer