Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1–5 1860 München U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

1860 München U19

11/22/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 12BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1940%

×Draw22%

1860 München U1938%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this match1860 München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.79

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.82

1860 München U19

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 54 away

1.56

creates per match

1.70

1.88

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

1860 München U19

1.70

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

1860 München U19

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

62%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or 1860 München U19

78%

Draw or 1860 München U19

60%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

21%

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

84%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

54%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

27%

1860 München U19 1+ goals

83%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

53%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

51%

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.82

1860 München U19 attack 1.70 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

1860 München U19 scores more

38%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stuttgarter K'rs U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Stuttgarter

1860

Manager: S. Ackermann

Manager: J. Schittenhelm