1860 München U19 1–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1860 München U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

K. Jakob 90+1'

R. Kasiar 90+3'

4/23/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 24Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

1860 München U1954%

×Draw21%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.46

1860 München U19

2.19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.46

1860 München U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 59 away

1.76

creates per match

1.27

1.64

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

1860 München U19

1.76

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

1860 München U19

1.64

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw

75%

1860 München U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

79%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

46%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

33%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals

89%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

64%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

37%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

77%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

43%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.76 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

1860 München U19 scores more

54%

level

21%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

25%

1860 München U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Braun← M. Zimmermann

46'

D. Vidic← M. Seltenreich

46'

F. Hut← C. Quatruccio

47'

D. Jurić← L. Wiesheu

76'

M. Mathis← T. Haas

83'

D. Skodic← F. Flath

89'

M. Ludwig← M. Faßbender

90+2'

M. Heigl← J. Justvan

90+1'

K. Jakob

90+3'

R. Kasiar

1860

Stuttgarter

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: J. Steinberger

46'▲F. Braun←▼M. Zimmermann

76'▲M. Mathis←▼T. Haas

83'▲D. Skodic←▼F. Flath

90+2'▲M. Heigl←▼J. Justvan

1860 München U19 substitutes

BraunMathisSkodicHeiglKrügerBendaSponer

Manager: R. Trabert

46'▲D. Vidic←▼M. Seltenreich

46'▲F. Hut←▼C. Quatruccio

47'▲D. Jurić←▼L. Wiesheu

89'▲M. Ludwig←▼M. Faßbender

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

VidicHutJurićLudwigMichalikDittrichRasic