Stuttgart U19 6–2 Saarbrücken U19: Result & Stats

Stuttgart U19

FT

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 2

Saarbrücken U19

K. Freßle 83', 76'

T. Durna 45', 33', 4'

M. Tsigkas 31'

E. Erdogan 13'

A. Dos Santos Reis 7'

10/26/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 10Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stuttgart U1969%

×Draw16%

Saarbrücken U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgart U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.28

Stuttgart U19

2.83

Saarbrücken U19

1.28

Stuttgart U19 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 37 away

2.68

creates per match

1.19

1.37

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Stuttgart U19

2.68

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Stuttgart U19

1.37

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw

85%

Stuttgart U19 or Saarbrücken U19

84%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

31%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

48%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

94%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

77%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

53%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

72%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

37%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.68 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.83

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more

69%

level

16%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

15%

Stuttgart U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

7'

13'

31'

33'

40'

N. Grucza← A. Dos Santos Reis

45'

T. Durna

46'

I. Knezevic← L. Preuß

46'

Xie Chujun← D. Hajdini

53'

C. Kroll-Thiel← M. Tsigkas

68'

E. Bujupi← J. Lüers

68'

Y. Spalt← T. Durna

68'

B. Erdogan← E. Erdogan

68'

M. Janes← F. Rupp

68'

M. Seitzer← N. Dincher

68'

P. Wallacher← N. Krämer

76'

K. Freßle

80'

K. Riffel← S. Figliuzzi

83'

K. Freßle

Stuttgart

Saarbrücken

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Erdogan

▼

Rupp

▼

Krämer

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽3

▼

⚽

▼

Tsigkas

▼

Hajdini

Manager: N. Willig

46'▲I. Knezevic←▼L. Preuß

46'▲Xie Chujun←▼D. Hajdini

53'▲C. Kroll-Thiel←▼M. Tsigkas

68'▲E. Bujupi←▼J. Lüers

68'▲Y. Spalt←▼T. Durna

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

KnezevicChujunKroll-ThielBujupiSpaltAğzıkaraStojcevic

Manager: S. D`Andrea

40'▲N. Grucza←▼A. Dos Santos Reis

68'▲B. Erdogan←▼E. Erdogan

68'▲M. Janes←▼F. Rupp

68'▲M. Seitzer←▼N. Dincher

68'▲P. Wallacher←▼N. Krämer

80'▲K. Riffel←▼S. Figliuzzi

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

GruczaErdoganJanesSeitzerWallacherRiffelSchubert

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgart U19 6–2 Saarbrücken U19

Stuttgart U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 6-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 26, 2024.

Goals: T. Durna (4', 33', 45'), A. Dos Santos Reis (7'), E. Erdogan (13'), M. Tsigkas (31'), K. Freßle (76', 83').

The match was played at Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart in Stuttgart.

Stuttgart U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgart U19 6–2 Saarbrücken U19