Saarbrücken U19 0–1 Stuttgart U19: Result & Stats

Saarbrücken U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stuttgart U19

Luis Ribeiro 37'

10/24/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 8FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1917%

×Draw17%

Stuttgart U1966%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saarbrücken U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

2.60

Saarbrücken U19

1.24

Stuttgart U19

2.60

Stuttgart U19 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 74 away

1.21

creates per match

2.74

2.45

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19

1.21

Stuttgart U19

2.74

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19

2.45

Stuttgart U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw

34%

Saarbrücken U19 or Stuttgart U19

83%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

83%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

6%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

71%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

35%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

13%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

92%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

73%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.74 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

17%

level

17%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

66%

Stuttgart U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

55'

60'

63'

72'

C. Drakas← T. Kastanaras

77'

L. Weis← E. Metaj

89'

M. Sahin← M. Hoppe

90+2'

P. König← Luis Ribeiro

Saarbrücken

Stuttgart

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Melunovic

55'▲T. Wachall←▼J. Magar

63'▲Y. Flausse←▼I. Smith

77'▲L. Weis←▼E. Metaj

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

WachallFlausseWeisLazzanoGeißlerWeberMutter

Manager: N. Willig

60'▲D. Knappe←▼R. Paula

72'▲C. Drakas←▼T. Kastanaras

89'▲M. Sahin←▼M. Hoppe

90+2'▲P. König←▼Luis Ribeiro

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

KnappeDrakasSahinKönigScharnerMestreInan

U19 Bundesliga: Saarbrücken U19 0–1 Stuttgart U19

Stuttgart U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 24, 2021.

Goals: Luis Ribeiro (37').

The match was played at FC Sportfeld in Saarbrücken.

Saarbrücken U19 vs Stuttgart U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Saarbrücken U19 0–1 Stuttgart U19