Stuttgart U19 2–0 Kickers Offenbach U19

Stuttgart U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kickers Offenbach U19

B. Hollerbach 85'

F. Schumann 23'

2/1/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 15Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Stuttgart U1971%

×Draw15%

Kickers Offenbach U1913%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgart U19Expected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.87

1.18

Stuttgart U19

2.87

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.18

Stuttgart U19 creates 143% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 47 away

2.68

creates per match

0.98

1.37

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Stuttgart U19

2.68

Kickers Offenbach U19

0.98

allows per match

Stuttgart U19

1.37

Kickers Offenbach U19

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw

87%

Stuttgart U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19

85%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19

29%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

51%

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

94%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

77%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

53%

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

69%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

33%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

84%

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.68 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.87

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more

71%

level

15%

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

13%

Stuttgart U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

F. Schumann

46'

N. Embaye← L. Dahl

48'

R. Ferreira← T. Sausen

56'

B. Hollerbach← F. Schumann

72'

E. Kuhinja← N. Meyer

78'

F. Oestreicher← D. Herth

81'

L. Laupheimer← C. Mistl

84'

D. Knappe← L. Egloff

85'

B. Hollerbach

89'

B. Caciel← D. Hummel

Stuttgart

Kickers

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Willig

56'▲B. Hollerbach←▼F. Schumann

81'▲L. Laupheimer←▼C. Mistl

84'▲D. Knappe←▼L. Egloff

89'▲B. Caciel←▼D. Hummel

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

HollerbachLaupheimerKnappeCacielKrasniqiGoeggelWerdich

Manager: R. Trabert

46'▲N. Embaye←▼L. Dahl

48'▲R. Ferreira←▼T. Sausen

72'▲E. Kuhinja←▼N. Meyer

78'▲F. Oestreicher←▼D. Herth

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

EmbayeFerreiraKuhinjaOestreicherTramontanaBellPuth

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgart U19 2–0 Kickers Offenbach U19

Stuttgart U19 beat Kickers Offenbach U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 1, 2020.

Goals: F. Schumann (23'), B. Hollerbach (85').

The match was played at Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart in Stuttgart.

Stuttgart U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgart U19 2–0 Kickers Offenbach U19