Stuttgart U19 5–0 FSV Frankfurt U19: Result & Stats

Stuttgart U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FSV Frankfurt U19

L. Dajaku 83', 24'

J. Djemanovic 77'

U. Güneş 58'

K. Grimm 38'

10/27/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 9Robert-Schlienz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Stuttgart U1961%

×Draw19%

FSV Frankfurt U1920%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgart U19Expected goals in this matchFSV Frankfurt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.30

Stuttgart U19

2.39

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.30

Stuttgart U19 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 31 away

2.68

creates per match

1.23

1.37

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Stuttgart U19

2.68

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.23

allows per match

Stuttgart U19

1.37

FSV Frankfurt U19

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

FSV Frankfurt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw

80%

Stuttgart U19 or FSV Frankfurt U19

81%

Draw or FSV Frankfurt U19

39%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

39%

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

91%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

69%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

42%

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

73%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

37%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

76%

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

FSV Frankfurt U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.68 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.39

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.23 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more

61%

level

19%

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

20%

Stuttgart U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

L. Dajaku

29'

C. Mistl← N. Bätzner

38'

K. Grimm

46'

F. Pandza← M. Mahmudov

58'

İ. Aral← D. Yokota

58'

U. Güneş

64'

M. Yasar← A. Solano

69'

J. Djemanovic← K. Grimm

74'

A. Kopf← P. Lockl

76'

K. Pinho← L. Bazzoli

77'

J. Djemanovic

79'

M. Reutter← B. Frölich

83'

L. Dajaku

Stuttgart

FSV

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Grimm

Manager: N. Willig

29'▲C. Mistl←▼N. Bätzner

69'▲J. Djemanovic←▼K. Grimm

74'▲A. Kopf←▼P. Lockl

79'▲M. Reutter←▼B. Frölich

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

MistlDjemanovicKopfReutterSchock

Manager: H. Sünal

46'▲F. Pandza←▼M. Mahmudov

58'▲İ. Aral←▼D. Yokota

64'▲M. Yasar←▼A. Solano

76'▲K. Pinho←▼L. Bazzoli

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

PandzaAralYasarPinhoAlbayrakWeiserHarbrecht

Match Recap: Stuttgart U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19

Stuttgart U19 beat FSV Frankfurt U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 27, 2018.

Goals: L. Dajaku (24', 83'), K. Grimm (38'), U. Güneş (58'), J. Djemanovic (77').

The match was played at Robert-Schlienz-Stadion in Stuttgart.

Stuttgart U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stuttgart U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19