FSV Frankfurt U19 1–2 Stuttgart U19: Result & Stats

FSV Frankfurt U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Stuttgart U19

E. Sejdović 2' (pen)

E. Hottmann 18'

N. Bätzner 9' (pen)

4/7/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 22PSD Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FSV Frankfurt U1922%

×Draw20%

Stuttgart U1958%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Frankfurt U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.35

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.40

Stuttgart U19

2.35

Stuttgart U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 74 away

1.52

creates per match

2.74

1.97

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.52

Stuttgart U19

2.74

allows per match

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.97

Stuttgart U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Frankfurt U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

FSV Frankfurt U19 or draw

42%

FSV Frankfurt U19 or Stuttgart U19

80%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

78%

Winning margin

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

9%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

75%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

41%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

17%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

90%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

68%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Frankfurt U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.52 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.74 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

22%

level

20%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

58%

Stuttgart U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

E. SejdovićPenalty

9'

N. BätznerPenalty

18'

E. Hottmann

22'

M. Reutter← Pedro Morais

46'

İ. Aral← D. Amoah

46'

Y. Hida← L. Weiser

58'

L. Schneider← D. Yokota

68'

U. Güneş← L. Egloff

69'

C. Mistl← F. Kleinhansl

78'

A. Touré← M. Weinhardt

87'

H. Centinkaya← P. Lockl

FSV

Stuttgart

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: H. Sünal

46'▲İ. Aral←▼D. Amoah

46'▲Y. Hida←▼L. Weiser

58'▲L. Schneider←▼D. Yokota

78'▲A. Touré←▼M. Weinhardt

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

AralHidaSchneiderTouréKraftMahmudovBouembe

Manager: N. Willig

22'▲M. Reutter←▼Pedro Morais

68'▲U. Güneş←▼L. Egloff

69'▲C. Mistl←▼F. Kleinhansl

87'▲H. Centinkaya←▼P. Lockl

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

ReutterGüneşMistlCentinkayaFrölichSchockDjemanovic

U19 Bundesliga: FSV Frankfurt U19 1–2 Stuttgart U19

Stuttgart U19 beat FSV Frankfurt U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 7, 2019.

Goals: E. Sejdović (2' pen), N. Bätzner (9' pen), E. Hottmann (18').

The match was played at PSD Bank Arena in Frankfurt am Main.

FSV Frankfurt U19 vs Stuttgart U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: FSV Frankfurt U19 1–2 Stuttgart U19