Sturt Lions vs Cumberland United — South Australia NPL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 33+ matches
Sturt Lions44%
Cumberland United33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sturt Lions creates 17% more chances
Season form · 42 home / 33 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sturt Lions ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sturt Lions at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches
Cumberland United away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sturt Lions attack 1.48 + Cumberland United defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69
Cumberland United attack 1.24 + Sturt Lions defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Sturt Lions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Sturt Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Adelaide Comets
Campbelltown City
MetroStars
Croydon Kings
Adelaide Raiders
Adelaide CityCumberland United
Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide United II
Modbury Jets
Para Hills KnightsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sturt Lions host Cumberland United on Saturday, 23 July 2022 at 05:30. The match is part of the South Australia NPL 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Sturt Lions vs Cumberland United
Sturt Lions beat Cumberland United 1-0 in South Australia NPL on July 23, 2022.
The match was played at Karinya Reserve in Mitcham.