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Cumberland United vs Sturt Lions — South Australia State League 1 2026

Cumberland United
Cumberland United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sturt Lions
Sturt Lions
4/26/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 7A. A. Bailey Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cumberland United39%
×Draw24%
Sturt Lions37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumberland United
1.59
Sturt Lions
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 23 away

creates per match

Cumberland United
1.93
Sturt Lions
1.65

allows per match

Cumberland United
1.42
Sturt Lions
1.26

finishing

Cumberland United+0.00on par
Sturt Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumberland United ↓

Sturt Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cumberland United or draw
63%
Cumberland United or Sturt Lions
76%
Draw or Sturt Lions
61%

Winning margin

Cumberland United wins by 2+
20%
Sturt Lions wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cumberland United 1+ goals
80%
Cumberland United 2+ goals
47%
Cumberland United 3+ goals
21%
Sturt Lions 1+ goals
78%
Sturt Lions 2+ goals
45%
Sturt Lions 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cumberland United (draw refunded)
52%
Sturt Lions (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumberland United at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.42 · 43 matches

Sturt Lions away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumberland United attack 1.93 + Sturt Lions defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sturt Lions attack 1.65 + Cumberland United defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cumberland United scores more
39%
level
24%
Sturt Lions scores more
37%

Cumberland United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cumberland United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cumberland United vs Sturt Lions

Sturt Lions beat Cumberland United 2-0 in South Australia State League 1 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at A. A. Bailey Reserve in Adelaide.