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Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Victory — South Australia State League 1 2026

Sturt Lions
Sturt Lions
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory
6/8/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 14Karinya Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sturt Lions56%
×Draw21%
Adelaide Victory23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturt Lions
2.13
Adelaide Victory
1.31

Sturt Lions creates 63% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 52 away

creates per match

Sturt Lions
2.48
Adelaide Victory
1.23

allows per match

Sturt Lions
1.39
Adelaide Victory
1.77

finishing

Sturt Lions+0.00on par
Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturt Lions ↓

Adelaide Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sturt Lions or draw
77%
Sturt Lions or Adelaide Victory
79%
Draw or Adelaide Victory
44%

Winning margin

Sturt Lions wins by 2+
34%
Adelaide Victory wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sturt Lions 1+ goals
88%
Sturt Lions 2+ goals
63%
Sturt Lions 3+ goals
35%
Adelaide Victory 1+ goals
73%
Adelaide Victory 2+ goals
38%
Adelaide Victory 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sturt Lions (draw refunded)
71%
Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturt Lions at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Adelaide Victory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturt Lions attack 2.48 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.13

Adelaide Victory attack 1.23 + Sturt Lions defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sturt Lions scores more
56%
level
21%
Adelaide Victory scores more
23%

Sturt Lions at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sturt Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Sturt Lions 3–1 Adelaide Victory

Sturt Lions beat Adelaide Victory 3-1 in South Australia State League 1 on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Karinya Reserve in Mitcham.