Adelaide Victory 2–0 Sturt Lions: Result & Stats

Adelaide Victory

FT

2 – 0

Sturt Lions

3/12/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 3Rushworth Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Adelaide Victory35%

×Draw25%

Sturt Lions39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide VictoryExpected goals in this matchSturt Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.44

Adelaide Victory

1.35

Sturt Lions

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 23 away

1.44

creates per match

1.65

1.22

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Adelaide Victory

1.44

Sturt Lions

1.65

allows per match

Adelaide Victory

1.22

Sturt Lions

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Sturt Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Victory ↓

Sturt Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Adelaide Victory or draw

61%

Adelaide Victory or Sturt Lions

75%

Draw or Sturt Lions

65%

Winning margin

Adelaide Victory wins by 2+

16%

Sturt Lions wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Adelaide Victory 1+ goals

74%

Adelaide Victory 2+ goals

39%

Adelaide Victory 3+ goals

15%

Sturt Lions 1+ goals

76%

Sturt Lions 2+ goals

42%

Sturt Lions 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)

47%

Sturt Lions (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Victory at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 54 matches

Sturt Lions away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Victory attack 1.44 + Sturt Lions defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sturt Lions attack 1.65 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adelaide Victory scores more

35%

level

25%

Sturt Lions scores more

39%

Sturt Lions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sturt Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff