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Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Blue Eagles — South Australia NPL 2026

Sturt Lions
Sturt Lions
FT
1 – 1
Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
8/17/2021South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 14Adelaide Shores Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sturt Lions46%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Blue Eagles31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturt Lions
1.75
Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.40

Sturt Lions creates 25% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sturt Lions
1.48
Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.17

allows per match

Sturt Lions
1.64
Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.03

finishing

Sturt Lions+0.00on par
Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturt Lions ↓

Adelaide Blue Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sturt Lions or draw
69%
Sturt Lions or Adelaide Blue Eagles
77%
Draw or Adelaide Blue Eagles
54%

Winning margin

Sturt Lions wins by 2+
24%
Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sturt Lions 1+ goals
83%
Sturt Lions 2+ goals
52%
Sturt Lions 3+ goals
25%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
75%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
41%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sturt Lions (draw refunded)
60%
Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturt Lions at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturt Lions attack 1.48 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.75

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 1.17 + Sturt Lions defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sturt Lions scores more
46%
level
23%
Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
31%

Sturt Lions at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sturt Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Blue Eagles

Sturt Lions and Adelaide Blue Eagles drew 1-1 in South Australia NPL on August 17, 2021.

The match was played at Adelaide Shores Football Centre in Adelaide.