Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Sturt Lions — South Australia State League 1 2026

Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sturt Lions
Sturt Lions
8/9/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 21Marden Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles44%
×Draw23%
Sturt Lions33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.73
Sturt Lions
1.46

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 18% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 23 away

creates per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.20
Sturt Lions
1.65

allows per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.27
Sturt Lions
1.26

finishing

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par
Sturt Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Blue Eagles ↓

Sturt Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Adelaide Blue Eagles or draw
67%
Adelaide Blue Eagles or Sturt Lions
77%
Draw or Sturt Lions
56%

Winning margin

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
23%
Sturt Lions wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
82%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
52%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
25%
Sturt Lions 1+ goals
77%
Sturt Lions 2+ goals
43%
Sturt Lions 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
57%
Sturt Lions (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Blue Eagles at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.27 · 56 matches

Sturt Lions away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 2.20 + Sturt Lions defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sturt Lions attack 1.65 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
44%
level
23%
Sturt Lions scores more
33%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Sturt Lions

Sturt Lions beat Adelaide Blue Eagles 1-0 in South Australia State League 1 on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Marden Sports Complex in Adelaide.