Sturm Graz W 3–0 Horn W: Result & Stats

Sturm Graz W

FT

3 – 0

Horn W

9/6/2020

Frauenliga · Round 1Messendorf Trainingszentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sturm Graz W74%

×Draw15%

Horn W11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sturm Graz WExpected goals in this matchHorn W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

0.99

Sturm Graz W

2.79

Horn W

0.99

Sturm Graz W creates 182% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 13 away

2.72

creates per match

0.85

1.13

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Sturm Graz W

2.72

Horn W

0.85

allows per match

Sturm Graz W

1.13

Horn W

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sturm Graz W+0.00on par

Horn W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz W ↓

Horn W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sturm Graz W or draw

89%

Sturm Graz W or Horn W

85%

Draw or Horn W

26%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz W wins by 2+

53%

Horn W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sturm Graz W 1+ goals

94%

Sturm Graz W 2+ goals

76%

Sturm Graz W 3+ goals

52%

Horn W 1+ goals

63%

Horn W 2+ goals

26%

Horn W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz W (draw refunded)

87%

Horn W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz W at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

Horn W away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz W attack 2.72 + Horn W defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.79

Horn W attack 0.85 + Sturm Graz W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sturm Graz W scores more

74%

level

15%

Horn W scores more

11%

Sturm Graz W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sturm Graz W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff