Horn W 0–4 Sturm Graz W: Result & Stats

Horn W

FT

0 – 4

Sturm Graz W

10/27/2019

Frauenliga · Round 8Waldviertler Volksbank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Horn W13%

×Draw17%

Sturm Graz W70%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Horn WExpected goals in this matchSturm Graz W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

2.49

Horn W

0.96

Sturm Graz W

2.49

Sturm Graz W creates 159% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 65 away

0.86

creates per match

2.18

2.79

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Horn W

0.86

Sturm Graz W

2.18

allows per match

Horn W

2.79

Sturm Graz W

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horn W+0.00on par

Sturm Graz W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horn W ↓

Sturm Graz W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Horn W or draw

30%

Horn W or Sturm Graz W

83%

Draw or Sturm Graz W

87%

Winning margin

Horn W wins by 2+

4%

Sturm Graz W wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Horn W 1+ goals

62%

Horn W 2+ goals

25%

Horn W 3+ goals

7%

Sturm Graz W 1+ goals

92%

Sturm Graz W 2+ goals

71%

Sturm Graz W 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Horn W (draw refunded)

15%

Sturm Graz W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horn W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

Sturm Graz W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horn W attack 0.86 + Sturm Graz W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sturm Graz W attack 2.18 + Horn W defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Horn W scores more

13%

level

17%

Sturm Graz W scores more

70%

Sturm Graz W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sturm Graz W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff